"Kaspersky: In the Soviet days, we used to joke that an optimist learns English because he is hoping that the country will open up, that a pessimist learns Chinese because he’s afraid that the Chinese will conquer us, and that the realist learns to use a Kalashnikov. These days, the optimist learns Chinese, the pessimist learns Arabic…
SPIEGEL: …and the realist?
Kaspersky: …keeps practicing with his Kalashnikov. Seriously. Even the Americans are now openly saying that they would respond to a large-scale, destructive Internet attack with a classic military strike. But what will they do if the cyber attack is launched against the United States from within their own country? Everything depends on computers these days: the energy supply, airplanes, trains. I’m worried that the Net will soon become a war zone, a platform for professional attacks on critical infrastructure.
"
~ Evgeny Kaspersky in an interview with Der Speigel (via Schneier on Security)
How to Win Friends and Influence People - Yemen Edition
Apparently the best strategy is to send armed mobs and trap people where they stand for awhile, just to show them who’s boss. This would not be my go-to tactic at a business negotiation, but I suppose in the same way that breaking a few dishes while cleaning up gets you out of dish duty, trapping an Ambassador in a foreign embassy with an armed mob gets you out of diplomatic cooperation.
Yemen’s political crisis took a dramatic turn yesterday when armed loyalists of embattled President Ali Abdullah Saleh surrounded an embassy, trapping the American and other ambassadors inside for hours until they apparently were flown out by Yemeni military helicopter.
Brent Crude tops $100 Bucks…
…are we ready for 150? Market factors + geopolitical instability resulting from bolder populations may not be priced in yet.
Today Brent Crude futures topped $100 bucks on the open market due to Egypt uncertainty. Normally oil futures stay pretty timid in times like this - it’s the middle of Winter in the Northern hemisphere and we’re recovering slowly from a recession.
If uncertainty in areas relating to the oil industry can cause spikes like this, what happens when a geopolitical event like this occurs in tandem with larger than expected economic growth across the BRIC countries and the U.S.? Are we prepared to deal with that eventuality as a country? As a population?
We’re currently thinking of 4-5 bucks as a high price for gas, but our markets are very open and risk appetites are lower than they may once have been since credit markets tightened. I can see gas going to 6, 7, 8 bucks a gallon or higher if you combine more Mid-East protests with growth in the coming two years.
Is our infrastructure ready? Can we switch away from gas-heavy products quickly? This post certainly poses more questions than answers but should also invite us to consider the overall agility of our infrastructure. How do we ease technology transition? How do we speed adaptation to market demands and prices? What happens when incentives for green energy arrive really quickly and for real, not just via subsidies?
Those positioned will certainly win out. Those not positioned will fail. What can we do to add that “requisite agility” to our infrastructure? I welcome your thoughts.
Pricing Source: Reuters
Is America Bribing Bibi, or Blackmailing Him?
Interesting piece from the Economist on military assistance from the US in return for temporary agreements on settlements. As another Economist blogger quips - paying for peace processes with military jets is like paying for carbon offsets in Hummers. A sticky situation, surely. Will be interesting to see where it goes.
How to Turn "International Community" into "Coalition Forces"
Headline: “Pakistan President: Coalition Forces losing the war against the Taliban in Afghanistan”
Actual Statement: “I believe that the international community, which Pakistan belongs to, is in the process of losing the war against the Taliban,” he told the paper just hours before meeting Nicolas Sarkozy, the French President, in Paris on Monday night.”
Wow. An impressive feat of yellow journalism, turning a key visit to the UK this week from something that could be seen to foster group improvement of the approach to Afghanistan into a hostile visit (as judged by the press). Good on ya Telegraph! Guess I won’t be clicking your links anymore. (that said, I clicked on that headline because it was shocking, so I guess I’m partially to blame)
Followup Video: Brits, Americans March in Red Square
British soldiers have marched in Red Square in Moscow for the first time to mark the 65th anniversary of the defeat of Nazi Germany on Sunday. Other notables: American troops marched but there’s little coverage here in the US. Also, Ukranian and Tajiks marching is quite notable given recent tensions between the nations.
Military Capabilities for Hybrid War; Insights from the Israel Defense Forces in Lebanon and Gaza
Newly released paper from the RAND Corporation commissioned by the US Army detailing some new lessons learned from the Israeli - Lebanon conflict. (via Defense Industry Daily)
Syria Gives Scuds to Hezbollah, U.S. Says...
Aw hell… That said, it’s posted in the Wall Street Journal and the sources quoted are “Israeli and U.S. Officials” with no names, either way, I agree with the sentiment that “that’s how wars start”.
All we are saying.... is give [Soft Power] a Chance!
Well spoken, and well taken. Great point about the importance of civilian capability for the USG.
About Me
A strategy consultant with a passion for IT, geopolitics, economics, and the open ocean. Awed by simple, innovative solutions to difficult problems. This represents my favorite slices of the web and serves as networked storage for my brain which is now entirely pointer-based. Opinions expressed here are my own and do not represent those of any organization with which I may or may not be allegedly associated.
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